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Current Tariff: 10%

US-United Kingdom Trade Analysis

Country
United Kingdom
US Import Rank
#12
Import Value
$70 billion
Trade Agreement
US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal

Last Updated:

Quick Facts

MetricValue
US Import Rank#12
2024 Import Value~$70 billion
% of US Imports2.1%
2024 Tariff Rate~2.5% average
Current Tariff Rate10% (lowest major partner)
Trade AgreementUS-UK Economic Prosperity Deal
US Trade Balance+$12 billion surplus

Trade Agreement

Previous Status (Post-Brexit)

After Brexit (January 2020), the UK traded with the US under:

  • WTO Most Favored Nation (MFN) rules
  • No comprehensive FTA
  • Bilateral negotiations stalled under Biden

US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD)

DateEvent
May 8, 2025Announced by Trump and Starmer
June 16, 2025Formally signed at G7 Summit (Canada)
June 30, 2025First provisions enter into force

Nature: Non-binding framework agreement, not a full FTA

Key Terms

AreaUS OfferUK Concession
General tariff10% (vs. 15% for EU)
Automobiles10% (100K quota)Beef quota: 13K tonnes
Aerospace0%Ethanol: 1.4B liters duty-free
Pharmaceuticals0% (3 years)25% more pharma spending
Steel/aluminum25% → 0% (pending quota)

2024 Baseline Tariff Structure

Product Category2024 RateNotes
Most goods~2.5%MFN rates
Automobiles2.5%Pre-tariff
Steel25%Section 232 with quota
Aluminum10%Section 232

2025 Tariff Changes

Timeline

Apr 5, 2025     "Liberation Day" - 10% reciprocal tariff on UK
May 8, 2025     Economic Prosperity Deal announced
Jun 16, 2025    EPD formally signed
Jun 30, 2025    EPD provisions take effect
Dec 1, 2025     Pharmaceutical pricing agreement
Dec 16, 2025    Tech Prosperity Deal suspended (DST dispute)

Current Tariff Structure (January 2026)

Product CategoryCurrent RateNotes
General goods10%EPD rate (lowest)
Steel25%Pending 0% quota
Aluminum25%Pending 0% quota
Automobiles10%Within 100K quota
Over-quota vehicles27.5%Exceeding quota
Aerospace0%Exempt
Pharmaceuticals0%3-year exemption
Medical technology0%Included with pharma

Exemptions

Aerospace (0%)

ProductStatus
Civil aircraftExempt
ComponentsExempt
EnginesExempt

Major beneficiary: Rolls-Royce, aerospace supply chain

Pharmaceuticals (0% for 3 years)

ProvisionDetail
Duration3 years (through 2028)
CoverageGeneric and branded
UK commitment25% increase in pharma spending
Agreement dateDecember 1, 2025

Medical Technology

Included with pharmaceutical exemption


The UK’s Favorable Treatment

Why 10% Instead of 15% (EU)?

FactorExplanation
Post-Brexit flexibilityNot bound by EU common policy
”Special relationship”Historical US-UK ties
Quick negotiationStarmer government moved fast
Strategic valueIntelligence sharing, defense
Concessions offeredBeef, ethanol, pharma pricing

UK vs. EU Comparison

CategoryUK RateEU Rate
General goods10%15%
Automobiles10%15%
Wine10%15%
Aerospace0%0%
Pharma0%0% (generics only)

Economic Effects

GDP Impact

SourceProjection
Oxford EconomicsGrowth reduced to 1.0% (2025)
2026 projection0.9%
Without escalation~0.3% GDP impact

Export Impact

MetricChange
UK exports to US (Sept 2025)Down £0.5 billion (11.4%)
September 2025 levelLowest since January 2022

Business Survey (November 2025)

FindingPercentage
Businesses affected by tariffs34%
Reporting additional costs22%
Expecting lower sales27%
Expecting no sales impact70%

Employment Concerns

SectorJobs at Risk
Automotive25,000
Jaguar Land RoverHigh exposure
MiniHigh exposure

Key Products Affected

Automobiles (£7.6 billion - 15% of UK exports to US)

StatusTariff
Within quota (100K units)10%
Over quota27.5%

Major Brands:

  • Jaguar Land Rover
  • Mini (BMW)
  • Bentley (VW)
  • Aston Martin
  • McLaren

Pharmaceuticals (£11.1 billion - 11% of exports)

StatusTariff
All pharma0% (3-year exemption)

Major Companies:

  • GlaxoSmithKline
  • AstraZeneca

Steel (£370 million)

StatusDetail
Current tariff25%
Future0% under quota (being negotiated)
UK steel share7% of UK steel exports

Whisky (~£1 billion)

StatusTariff
Current10%
Previous (2018-2021)25% (Trump 1.0)

Farm Machinery (£300 million)

StatusTariff
Current25%+ (derivative rules)
Largest export marketUS

UK Concessions

Beef Quota

ProvisionDetail
Duty-free quota13,000 metric tons
Additional1,000 tonnes at 0% (was 20%)

Ethanol

ProvisionDetail
Duty-free volume1.4 billion liters
Previous tariff19%

Pharmaceutical Pricing

CommitmentDetail
NHS spending25% more on new treatments
BeneficiaryUS pharma companies

Estimated US Gains

ValueDetail
New export opportunities$5 billion
Market accessBeef, ethanol, pharma

Digital Services Tax Dispute

Background

IssueDetail
UK DST2% tax on tech company revenues
Annual revenue£800 million
US positionDemands removal

Tech Prosperity Deal Crisis

DateEvent
Sept 18, 2025Tech deal signed (£31B/$42B)
Dec 16, 2025Deal suspended over DST
StatusNegotiations January 2026

Impact

The DST dispute threatens broader trade relationship:

  • Tech deal provisions on hold
  • Potential escalation
  • January 2026 negotiations planned

Outstanding Issues

Steel/Aluminum Quota

StatusDetail
Current tariff25%
Negotiated outcome0% under quota
ProgressStill being finalized

Digital Services Tax

Must be resolved for full EPD implementation

Other Unresolved

IssueStatus
Financial servicesNot covered
Online Safety ActRegulatory concerns
Food safety standardsAlignment issues
Full FTANot achieved

Significant Events

DateEventImpact
Apr 5, 202510% tariff takes effectLower than EU
May 8, 2025EPD announcedRelief
Jun 30, 2025EPD provisions beginSector benefits
Dec 1, 2025Pharma agreement0% secured
Dec 16, 2025Tech deal suspendedDST dispute

Current Status (January 2026)

What’s in Effect

  • 10% baseline (lowest among major partners)
  • 0% on aerospace
  • 0% on pharmaceuticals (3 years)
  • 25% on steel/aluminum (pending quota)

Advantages Over EU

  • 5 percentage points lower base rate
  • Broader pharma exemption
  • Auto quota at 10%
  • Bilateral deal flexibility

Outstanding Issues

  • DST dispute threatens expansion
  • Steel/aluminum quota not finalized
  • Tech deal suspended
  • Full FTA not achieved

Outlook

The UK secured the most favorable tariff treatment among major US trading partners, benefiting from post-Brexit negotiating flexibility and the “special relationship.” The 10% baseline rate is significantly better than the EU’s 15%. However, the Digital Services Tax dispute and suspended Tech Prosperity Deal show the fragility of the arrangement. The steel/aluminum quota negotiation and January 2026 DST talks will be critical.


Sources