Trade Analysis

Overview of US trade relationships with top 15 import partners, including current tariff rates and agreement types.

The USMCA exemption has largely insulated Mexico from the worst tariff impacts, with compliance rates approaching 90%. Steel and aluminum remain at 50%.

The US-China trade relationship remains the most contentious. The ~55% tariff level represents a 'new normal' far above pre-2018 rates, with temporary relief from the October 2025 Trump-Xi deal.

The USMCA has largely protected US-Canada trade, but significant pain points remain. Steel and aluminum tariffs at 50% hurt Canadian producers, and the approaching 2026 review creates uncertainty.

Germany faces significant challenges from US tariffs, particularly in the automotive sector. While the EU framework provided stability at 15%, the January 2026 Greenland crisis has introduced new uncertainty.

Japan secured one of the more favorable deals among US trading partners, reflecting its strategic importance. The 15% rate and semiconductor protections provide stability, with a $550 billion investment commitment.

Vietnam secured a significantly better deal than the initially threatened 46%, but the 20% rate still represents a major increase. The electronics exemption is critical for maintaining trade flows.

South Korea secured a relatively favorable deal reflecting its strategic importance. The 15% rate and semiconductor protections provide stability, with a massive $350 billion investment commitment.

Taiwan's semiconductor dominance gives it unique leverage in tariff negotiations. The exemption for chip companies investing in the US creates a powerful incentive for continued investment.

Ireland benefits from the pharmaceutical exemption, which protects its largest export sector. The 15% rate on other goods is manageable but represents a significant increase from pre-2025 levels.

India faces the most challenging tariff situation among major US trading partners. The 50% rate severely impacts manufacturing exports, but the pharmaceutical exemption protects India's most critical export sector.

Italy faces significant challenges under the 15% EU framework, particularly in its iconic food and beverage sectors. Italy's SME-dominated economy and unprotected agricultural exports create higher vulnerability.

The UK secured the most favorable tariff treatment among major US trading partners at 10%, benefiting from post-Brexit negotiating flexibility and the 'special relationship.'

Thailand secured a moderately favorable deal at 19%, avoiding the initially threatened 37%. The electronics exemption protects its largest export sector.

France faces significant uncertainty due to the Greenland crisis. While the EU framework provides a 15% ceiling, Trump's specific threats of 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne could severely impact iconic export sectors.

Malaysia secured a solid deal with significant exemptions for its key exports (palm oil, semiconductors, natural rubber). The 19% general rate is comparable to regional competitors.

Brazil faces a 50% tariff on most goods, but the November 2025 Trump-Lula deal exempted key agricultural exports including coffee and beef. Steel and industrial goods remain at 50%.